Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x00da…a87e sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$272
14 days+$272
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$100
other 15% +$97
world 1% −$32
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.1% -15.9% 58% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 38 -7.1% -15.9% 58% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 47 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 53% -10.6%
all 47 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 53% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 53% -10.6%
10% -16.1% 45% -19.2%
15% -24.2% 36% -27.0%
20% -31.7% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$37 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage75d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 52¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 +$129 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $58 +$31 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$19 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $59 +$21 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $173 +$27 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $63 +$37 +59%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 +$9 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $78 +$13 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $75 +$24 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$15 +47%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 +$8 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $361 +$39 +11%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $90 −$2 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $373 +$27 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $77 +$22 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $141 +$59 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $2 +$3 +113%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 04 $11 +$9 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 +$2 +59%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $308 −$308 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $64 +$3 +4%
Spread: Magic (-6.5) Apr 04 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Apr 04 $3 +$3 +109%
Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5 Apr 04 $3 +$4 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 14m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 15m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $39 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $12 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $280 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $13 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $9 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $58 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $150 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $9 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $17 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $33 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 60¢ $12 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $17 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $59 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $31 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $32 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $54 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $173 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.06 · official $69.93 (match) · 100 history records