Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00db…31ec crypto 1034 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$574 (-7%) realized −$574 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%439W / 595L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$64
14 days−$73
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$223
sports 15% −$110
other 2% +$7
finance 1% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 41% -17.9%
≤30d 820 -9.0% -17.6% 43% 35% -16.5%
≤90d 1034 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 34% -13.3%
all 1034 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 34% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -21.6%
15% -31.7% 28% -29.2%
20% -38.4% 26% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$574
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses439 / 595
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1034 / 1034
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1034 Trades
no open positions (356 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +425%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 18 $0 $0 -88%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -41%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +23%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$1 -15%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 56¢ $3 20h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 63¢ $3 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 73¢ $4 20h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL Paper Rex 42¢ $4 20h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 SELL Under 93¢ $5 20h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL No 98¢ $5 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $5 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $5 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? SELL No 99¢ $5 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $5 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 71¢ $7 20h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records