Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00df…701b sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$512 (-7%) realized −$471 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%55W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days+$774
14 days+$52
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$891
other 12% +$180
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +18.2% +6.9% 55% 55% +21.9%
≤30d 97 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 47% -8.2%
≤90d 102 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 49% -6.8%
all 150 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 37% -18.4%
10% -35.1% 37% -26.2%
15% -41.4% 37% -33.4%
20% -47.1% 37% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$41 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized−$471
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses55 / 95
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions12
Markets (closed)150 / 162
History coverage196d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ 46¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $84 $81 −$4 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 50¢ 98¢ $35 $68 +$33 (+93%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Texas Rangers 52¢ 50¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-2%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 42¢ 38¢ $70 $64 −$6 (-8%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 46¢ $57 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $40 $27 −$12 (-31%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 46¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 48¢ 4¢ $48 $4 −$43 (-91%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $42 +$34 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 +$55 +105%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $27 +$28 +105%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $54 +$72 +134%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $16 +$19 +113%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $56 +$66 +119%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $71 −$71 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $38 +$34 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$50 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $236 +$185 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $52 +$53 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $42 −$41 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $62 −$61 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$59 +101%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $86 +$103 +121%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$82 +250%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $68 −$66 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $42 +$46 +108%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $69 +$69 +100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $66 +$58 +88%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $238 +$414 +174%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$34 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $45 +$56 +124%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $52 +$51 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $52 −$52 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $34 −$33 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $55 +$68 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $56 +$50 +89%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 09 $51 +$57 +113%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $68 +$63 +92%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 09 $45 +$37 +82%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $26 +$19 +72%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $26 −$26 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $61 26m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $94 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $68 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $2 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $9 15h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $10 16h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $29 20h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 42¢ $28 21h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 42¢ $22 21h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 42¢ $9 23h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 42¢ $4 24h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 42¢ $1 24h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 42¢ $6 25h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $7 26h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $2 29h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $42 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $10 32h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $54 47h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $4 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $77 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 52¢ $38 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $11 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $2 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $8 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $4 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $4 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.68 · official $593.68 (match) · 512 history records