Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00df…2c3c crypto 234 markets active 3d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,171 (-13%) realized −$1,171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%78W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$365
14 days−$859
30 days−$1,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,719
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -58.6% -62.5% 19% 19% -38.6%
≤30d 101 -36.1% -42.2% 29% 28% -40.9%
≤90d 234 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 29% -31.5%
all 234 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 29% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 29% -31.5%
10% -35.7% 25% -38.1%
15% -41.9% 22% -44.1%
20% -47.6% 17% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses78 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage75d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (138 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $218 −$32 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $246 −$51 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $179 −$73 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $157 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $167 +$18 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $264 −$69 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $325 −$17 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $87 −$14 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$13 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $75 −$71 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$21 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $64 −$29 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $113 −$26 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $58 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $129 −$68 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $92 +$40 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $70 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $129 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $34 −$25 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $84 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $17 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $22 −$21 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $22 −$18 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $54 +$33 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$13 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $75 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $59 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $109 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $169 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $90 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $94 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $94 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $85 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $114 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 638 history records