Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e1…1a22 politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
politics 23% +$1
other 22% −$29
crypto 7% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -2.4% -11.7% 17% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 18 -2.4% -11.7% 17% 6% -10.3%
all 58 -3.1% -12.3% 26% 3% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -12.5%
10% -20.7% 0% -20.8%
15% -28.4% 0% -28.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage277d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 −$1 -9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $10 −$3 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $35 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $66 +$3 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $32 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $1 $0 +16%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Nov 20 $22 +$1 +4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 18 $8 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 24 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 24 $1 $0 -22%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $1 $0 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $11 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $2 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.86 · official $31.86 (match) · 168 history records