Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e1…b679 crypto 117 markets active 79d ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (448 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28,639 (+48%) realized +$28,639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%73W / 44L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day447.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$5,477
world 5% +$462
politics 3% +$896
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (448 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 117 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 58% +0.7%
all 117 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 58% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover447.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 58% +0.7%
10% -10.2% 56% -8.9%
15% ← realistic here -18.9% 49% -17.7%
20% -26.9% 36% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$654) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$340 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28,639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses73 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$515
Trades / day447.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $550 +$26 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 12 $630 +$165 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 12 $690 +$240 +35%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $1,802 +$896 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $874 +$31 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 05 $650 −$290 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 05 $356 +$444 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 05 $463 +$249 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 05 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 05 $395 +$400 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 05 $826 +$341 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 05 $536 +$264 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 05 $872 −$473 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 05 $755 +$507 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 05 $654 +$354 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 05 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 05 $913 +$356 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 05 $159 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 05 $535 +$247 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 05 $407 +$99 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 05 $562 +$238 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 05 $2,312 +$1,060 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 05 $905 −$143 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 05 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 05 $2,147 +$80 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 04 $552 +$278 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 04 $175 +$781 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 04 $2,225 −$98 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 04 $698 −$69 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 04 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 04 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 04 $269 −$269 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 04 $663 +$196 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 04 $430 +$1,010 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 04 $236 −$148 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 04 $485 +$118 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 04 $87 +$34 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 04 $205 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 04 $677 −$401 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 04 $114 +$60 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 04 $1,139 +$508 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 04 $655 −$278 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 04 $370 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 04 $811 −$723 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 04 $813 −$158 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 04 $352 +$190 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 04 $437 +$380 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 04 $526 +$335 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 04 $548 +$175 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 11¢ $402 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 53¢ $795 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 13¢ $166 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? SELL Yes 31¢ $930 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $189 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $84 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $39 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 23¢ $690 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 11¢ $550 79d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,765 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records