Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e3…fae9 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$35
politics 19% −$3
world 18% +$9
other 15% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -3.8% -13.0% 30% 10% -6.1%
≤90d 10 -3.8% -13.0% 30% 10% -6.1%
all 39 -3.7% -12.9% 21% 3% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -11.9%
10% -21.2% 3% -20.4%
15% -28.8% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage264d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $40 +$3 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $6 $0 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $24 +$7 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $22 −$2 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -6%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $229 +$4 +2%
GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 09 $224 −$39 -17%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 07 $8 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 27 $1 $0 -38%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $7 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $32 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $37 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $13 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $40 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $5 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $27 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $12 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.48 · official $41.48 (match) · 141 history records