Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e4…db65 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$31 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$11
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$80
other 39% −$64
crypto 5% −$9
world 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +34.4% +21.6% 47% 43% -7.9%
≤30d 60 +30.0% +17.6% 45% 42% -9.7%
≤90d 60 +30.0% +17.6% 45% 42% -9.7%
all 60 +30.0% +17.6% 45% 42% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.6% 42% -9.7%
10% +6.4% 33% -18.3%
15% -3.9% 23% -26.2%
20% -13.3% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $88 −$39 -45%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $61 +$8 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $3 +$58 +1884%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$24 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +22%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -27%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$17 +204%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 7h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $20 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $29 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 13¢ $5 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 65¢ $40 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $10 12h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $30 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 21h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $30 21h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 24h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 25h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $20 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 30h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $33 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 31h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $20 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $19 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $15 47h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $18 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.84 · official $90.84 (match) · 143 history records