Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e5…523d world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$2
politics 23% $0
culture 11% $0
other 10% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 7% $0
finance 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 50% -7.0%
≤30d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 10% -8.7%
≤90d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 10% -8.7%
all 38 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage334d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $75 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 10 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
"Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 28 $6 $0 -2%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by Sunday, July 27? Jul 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Jul 27 $2 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 26 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $74 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $37 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $39 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $34 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $11 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $23 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $14 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 120 history records