Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e7…7ef4 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$4
politics 15% +$11
economics 14% −$1
crypto 8% +$3
world 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 6 -16.2% -24.1% 83% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 90% 20% -9.9%
all 40 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 10% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage606d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $82 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 23 $101 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Kings Apr 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Thunder vs. Magic Apr 13 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 6? Mar 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on February 8? Mar 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 7? Mar 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Jan 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Jan 21 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Nov 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? Nov 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.70 and $2.80 on October 30? Nov 10 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jul 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 09 $15 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 19 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 19 $1,011 −$1 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Oct 19 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 19 $445 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 19 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 19 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 19 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 44m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 45m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 46m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $16 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $5 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $9 24d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $6 24d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 65d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 65d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 92d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 92d
Spurs vs. Kings BUY Spurs 88¢ $5 92d
Thunder vs. Magic BUY Thunder 81¢ $6 92d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $22 131d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $40 131d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $20 131d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 146d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 146d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $21 212d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $100 218d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 218d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 218d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.70 and $2.80 on October 30? BUY No 100¢ $67 229d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 229d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.84 · official $134.84 (match) · 301 history records