Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e7…fc47 weather 597 markets active 16h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,148 (-1%) realized −$1,163 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%535W / 60L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$76
14 days+$170
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$162
crypto 2% −$127
politics 1% +$97
world 1% −$711
other 0% +$55
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -6.9% -15.8% 85% 9% -8.8%
≤30d 138 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 12% -10.3%
≤90d 595 +1.4% -8.3% 90% 6% -10.2%
all 595 +1.4% -8.3% 90% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -10.2%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.8%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$91 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$1,163
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses535 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)595 / 597
History coverage157d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 595 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $387 $403 +$16 (+4%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $266 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $468 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $506 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $246 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $137 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $202 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $82 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $662 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $406 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $276 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $203 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $108 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$13 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $145 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $195 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$14 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $152 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $246 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $105 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $365 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $216 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $177 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $161 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $128 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $325 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $84 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $145 −$32 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $340 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $167 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $134 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $80 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $244 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 16h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $388 19h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $67 38h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $19 38h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $18 38h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $17 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $96 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $250 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $169 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $142 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $164 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $111 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.89 · official $412.89 (match) · 2562 history records