Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00e7…da0f politics 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+2%) realized +$156 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%21W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$173
14 days+$172
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$146
world 24% −$12
politics 15% −$31
tech 8% −$10
finance 7% −$1
sports 6% −$7
crypto 2% −$2
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.6% -24.6% 29% 29% +4.1%
≤30d 42 -10.3% -18.8% 14% 12% -0.7%
≤90d 93 -9.8% -18.4% 19% 5% -7.6%
all 101 -8.7% -17.4% 21% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 8% -7.5%
10% -25.3% 4% -16.4%
15% -32.5% 4% -24.4%
20% -39.1% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$5 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses21 / 80
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage157d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $322 $319 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $186 $183 −$3 (-2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes $14 $11 −$2 (-18%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $12 $1 −$11 (-93%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $274 +$256 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $141 −$138 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $308 −$20 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 23 $17 −$7 -44%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $320 +$160 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 −$77 -98%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 20 $12 $0 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -8%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 05 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $32 −$4 -11%
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 05 $16 $0 -2%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 05 $5 $0 -7%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $60 −$2 -3%
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Jun 05 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 05 $9 $0 -2%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 05 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 05 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 05 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $27 −$2 -7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? May 31 $15 −$3 -19%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 31 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? May 31 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? May 31 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? May 31 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? May 31 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and May 28 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? May 28 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 28 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 28 $9 $0 -3%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 28 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be between 3% an May 28 $28 −$4 -12%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May? May 28 $35 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $190 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $327 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $274 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $135 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $288 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 5d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $320 6d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL No 50¢ $6 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY No 50¢ $7 7d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $0 7d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $0 7d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 7d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 14d
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $4 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $15 21d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $10 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes $3 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.75 · official $514.75 (match) · 376 history records