Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00ea…70b2 crypto 1025 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,423 (-4%) realized −$1,382 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%477W / 547L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day196.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,773
7 days−$1,131
14 days−$2,355
30 days−$2,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 281 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 44% -18.9%
≤30d 1024 -7.9% -16.6% 47% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 1024 -7.9% -16.6% 47% 44% -15.5%
all 1024 -7.9% -16.6% 47% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 44% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 39% -23.6%
15% -31.9% 31% -30.9%
20% -38.6% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,382
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses477 / 547
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1024 / 1025
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day196.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$41 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$16 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$51 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$34 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$19 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $158 +$67 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$33 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$103 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$13 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$31 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$41 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$35 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$10 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$38 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$132 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$59 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$11 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$33 +162%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$90 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$19 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +214%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$42 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $59 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $48 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $35 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $42 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $24 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $24 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $38 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 3500 history records