Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x00ec…a4ff crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.2% +5.1% 60% 52% -6.4%
≤30d 25 +16.2% +5.1% 60% 52% -6.4%
≤90d 25 +16.2% +5.1% 60% 52% -6.4%
all 25 +16.2% +5.1% 60% 52% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 52% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 48% -15.4%
15% -14.1% 28% -23.6%
20% -22.5% 16% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $126 −$23 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$70 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records