Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x00ed…0a9f sports 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,231 (-6%) realized −$2,234 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%108W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$523
7 days−$989
14 days−$1,533
30 days−$1,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,002
other 5% +$460
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +82.0% +64.7% 29% 29% -74.1%
≤30d 54 +13.5% +2.7% 44% 44% -16.4%
≤90d 110 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 46% -15.8%
all 235 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 45% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 45% -15.3%
10% -17.1% 45% -23.4%
15% -25.1% 45% -30.8%
20% -32.5% 44% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$163 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$2,234
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses108 / 127
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage154d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $278 $281 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $157 −$157 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $367 −$367 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $50 +$62 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $120 −$70 -58%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $346 −$295 -85%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $335 −$266 -79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$103 +874%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $354 +$373 +105%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers: O/U 51.5 Jun 12 $364 +$339 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $391 −$391 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $310 +$310 +100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $314 +$304 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $389 −$374 -96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $358 +$408 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $298 −$298 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $315 −$315 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $371 −$371 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 10 $395 −$395 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $385 −$385 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $371 −$371 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Jun 10 $356 −$356 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $392 −$392 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $382 −$382 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $409 −$409 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 10 $159 −$159 -100%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders Jun 10 $226 −$226 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $270 −$270 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 10 $244 −$244 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $269 −$269 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $295 −$295 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $295 −$295 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $452 +$456 +101%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $433 +$455 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $371 +$497 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $380 −$353 -93%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $295 +$412 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $308 +$326 +106%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $14 +$21 +146%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $316 +$278 +88%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $293 +$320 +109%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $283 +$336 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $296 −$269 -91%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $323 +$848 +262%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $269 −$244 -91%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $232 +$254 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $244 +$356 +146%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $232 +$216 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $282 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $157 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $50 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 17¢ $50 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $120 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 7¢ $50 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 11¢ $69 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $335 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $346 6d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 38¢ $367 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 10¢ $12 7d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $1 7d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $353 7d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers: O/U 51.5 BUY Over 51¢ $364 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 50¢ $16 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 50¢ $294 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $617 8d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 49¢ $304 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $314 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $391 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 2¢ $14 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $389 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $358 9d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $433 9d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $452 9d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $868 9d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $382 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 42¢ $392 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 4¢ $27 9d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $371 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.02 · official $275.86 · 590 history records