Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x00ee…9a7d crypto 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$275 (+15%) realized +$317 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 45L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$109
14 days+$111
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$85
world 22% −$103
finance 19% +$63
crypto 12% −$60
sports 9% +$297
tech 4% +$32
economics 3% −$45
politics 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +85.7% +68.0% 100% 100% +37.0%
≤30d 8 +60.5% +45.2% 88% 88% +19.4%
≤90d 54 -31.5% -38.0% 35% 33% +23.4%
all 65 -37.7% -43.7% 31% 29% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 29% +11.7%
10% -49.1% 28% +1.0%
15% -54.0% 26% -8.8%
20% -58.5% 20% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$8 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)65 / 83
History coverage279d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 29¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 39¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 34¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$97 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$30 -30%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$11 +22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 09 $100 +$15 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$8 +170%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $5 +$5 +102%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $26 +$10 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 15 $103 +$43 +42%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 11 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 11 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 10 $6 −$6 -96%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $118 +$308 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 07 $5 +$7 +134%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $10 7d
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day SELL Up 89¢ $84 7d
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day BUY Up 53¢ $51 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $100 12d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $61 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 63¢ $115 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $13 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 55¢ $100 27d
Trump kiss by May 31? BUY No $1 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL No 62¢ $35 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 73¢ $107 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? SELL No 49¢ $145 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 39d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi SELL No 85¢ $14 39d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.83 · official $441.84 (match) · 145 history records