Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x00f0…7958 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$81 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%112W / 59L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$135
crypto 21% −$70
other 18% +$79
world 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 44% -7.5%
≤30d 44 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 41% -14.9%
≤90d 88 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 35% -9.4%
all 171 +3.1% -6.7% 65% 27% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 27% -10.4%
10% -15.7% 25% -18.9%
15% -23.8% 23% -26.8%
20% -31.3% 20% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses112 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage125d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 91¢ 85¢ $332 $311 −$21 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 04 $5 −$3 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 04 $9 −$5 -52%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 31 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 24 $7 +$3 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 22 $25 −$6 -23%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $9 +$7 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 −$4 -21%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $6 +$7 +110%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $35 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 91¢ $249 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 91¢ $83 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $3 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $5 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 43h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.63 · official $313.54 (match) · 417 history records