Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

00 0x00f1…1a08 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized −$6 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day14.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-25.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-17.2%	-25.1%	14%	0%	-26.5%
≤30d	7	-17.2%	-25.1%	14%	0%	-26.5%
≤90d	7	-17.2%	-25.1%	14%	0%	-26.5%
all	7	-17.2%	-25.1%	14%	0%	-26.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.1%	0%	-26.5%
10%	-32.3%	0%	-33.6%
15%	-38.8%	0%	-40.0%
20%	-44.8%	0%	-45.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day14.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	79¢	78¢	$51	$50	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 24	$5	$0	-3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	$0	-2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	$0	+7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	−$3	-30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	−$1	-10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 24	$5	$0	-7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	−$4	-75%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	79¢	$52	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	79¢	$52	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	80¢	$53	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	73¢	$5	22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	84¢	$5	22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	97¢	$5	22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	17¢	$5	24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	47¢	$5	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	15¢	$1	24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	1¢	$0	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$5	30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	29¢	$5	30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	91¢	$5	30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	85¢	$5	30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$5	30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	74¢	$5	30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	49¢	$5	30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	60¢	$5	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $56.03 · 19 history records