Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00f3…84be other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 34% −$14
sports 8% −$46
crypto 7% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -3.9% -13.0% 8% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage136d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $160 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $749 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $400 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $546 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $166 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $358 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $351 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 2h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 5h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $180 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $180 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $176 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $176 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $154 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $154 32d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $212 32d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $212 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 33d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 33d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 34d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 34d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 34d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $154 34d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $154 35d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $163 35d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $163 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $170 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 449 history records