Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x00f4…36f9
other · 859 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$1,010 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,009 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$348
Realized−$1,009
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses827 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)846 / 859
Avg bet$146
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 13 History 846 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Auger-Aliassime 19¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
No airdrop in 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Barcelona vs. Alaves end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? No 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Clermont Foot 63 win on 2026-02-27? No 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs WW Team (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 Group C WW Team 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Palantir" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? No 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $207 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $329 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $315 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 06 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June Jun 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will "A Good Girl's Guide to Murder: Season 2" be the top global Netfl Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $330 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $330 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $70 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $315 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 28 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 26? May 27 $320 $0 +0%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 25? May 26 $270 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $320 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 17? May 21 $340 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Kayla Cross May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $310 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on May 15? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 13? May 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on May 12? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on May 12? May 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 11? May 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on May 10? May 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10AM ET May 08 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 39% −$1,065
other 36% +$117
sports 13% +$1
weather 6% +$7
tech 6% +$8
politics 0% −$20
culture 0% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$60
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $206 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $210 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $207 42h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $120 42h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $330 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $329 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $315 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $315 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $320 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $210 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $110 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $220 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $99 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $333 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $330 9d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 9d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 9d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 9d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $330 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 -2.1% -11.4% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 469 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 846 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.38 · official $347.93 (match) · 1887 history records