trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 23% | 5% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.1% | 5% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -16.0% | 5% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -24.1% | 5% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -31.6% | 5% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 28 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | May 06 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Mar 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 30? | Jan 30 | $2,643 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | Jan 30 | $2,064 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Jan 30 | $4,757 | −$5 | -0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Jan 30 | $4,900 | −$5 | -0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | Dec 05 | $18 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Oct 24 | $23 | −$4 | -16% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 30 | $25 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Mar 14 | $29 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 06 | $18 | +$12 | +68% |
| 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | Oct 05 | $86 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Oct 05 | $120 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Oct 03 | $92 | $0 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 03 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 02 | $451 | $0 | -0% |
| Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Oct 02 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Oct 01 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Oct 01 | $119 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Sep 30 | $174 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | Sep 28 | $100 | $0 | -0% |