Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00f7…19dd sports 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-11%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%90W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$157
14 days−$150
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$131
sports 47% −$18
crypto 1% +$9
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +4.7% -5.3% 34% 32% -26.6%
≤30d 209 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 41% -21.8%
≤90d 209 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 41% -21.8%
all 209 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 41% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 41% -21.8%
10% -17.6% 38% -29.3%
15% -25.5% 33% -36.1%
20% -32.8% 27% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses90 / 119
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +172%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$2 +120%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $100 −$26 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$8 -52%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$12 +146%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$16 +132%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$13 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$7 +85%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$13 +307%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $3 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $3 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $1 25h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL No 70¢ $74 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $7 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records