Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x00f8…153b
crypto · 948 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12,465 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,647 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$86
Realized−$4,647
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses483 / 731
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1214 / 948
History coverage13d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day254.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 1214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,221
7 days−$5,711
14 days−$4,647
30 days−$4,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 26¢ 16¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 35¢ 28¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 41¢ 30¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 47¢ 34¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$21 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$47 -2371%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$27 +532%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$1,179
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $8 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 827 -35.8% -41.9% 32% 30% -32.1%
≤30d 1214 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 38% -21.9%
≤90d 1214 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 38% -21.9%
all 1214 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 38% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover254.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 38% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 37% -29.3%
15% -40.9% 34% -36.2%
20% -46.7% 30% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.72 · official $85.73 (match) · 3500 history records