Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00fa…9af5 sports 740 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$492 (-1%) realized −$489 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%411W / 326L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$396
7 days−$5,553
14 days−$5,151
30 days−$4,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$67
other 18% −$392
crypto 0% −$91
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -90.4% -91.4% 6% 5% -65.1%
≤30d 262 -82.8% -84.5% 11% 10% -36.6%
≤90d 391 -49.3% -54.1% 32% 28% -24.8%
all 737 -3.0% -12.3% 56% 50% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -10.5%
10% -20.7% 37% -19.1%
15% -28.3% 29% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$27 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$489
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses411 / 326
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions3
Markets (closed)737 / 740
History coverage242d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $371 +$79 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$10 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $278 −$182 -65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $37 −$31 -84%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $96 −$67 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $68 −$47 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $32 −$20 -63%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $14 −$10 -70%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Bulls Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Bucks Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Wizards vs. Pacers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-25? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-28? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-22? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Hornets Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-11-13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $24 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $371 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $40 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $30 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $6 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 11¢ $9 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $7 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $14 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $2 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $10 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 23¢ $20 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.75 · official $101.75 (match) · 2149 history records