Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00ff…03d0 other 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 25% −$21
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$13
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage142d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $452 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $430 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $541 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $382 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $343 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $812 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $681 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $133 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $746 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $129 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $400 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 23m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 43m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 3h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 4h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 7h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 16h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 19h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 25h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 26h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 39h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 40h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 41h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 44h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 46h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.33 · official $49.33 (match) · 1486 history records