Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0103…067b other 102 markets active 199d ago coverage 193d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 193d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21,821 (-11%) realized −$21,821 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 64L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,949per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$1,058
world 31% −$8,202
other 14% −$4,954
crypto 12% −$4,851
tech 2% +$967
culture 0% −$24
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 103 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 26% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 26% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 20% -23.7%
15% -33.8% 15% -31.1%
20% -40.3% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -412% too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,497) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$974 vs −$878 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21,821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 102
History coverage193d ⚠
Avg bet$1,949
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Jun 29 $9 −$35 -412%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 15 $2,377 +$133 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $1,209 −$118 -10%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jan 04 $81 +$74 +91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 04 $1,595 +$4 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 04 $5,020 −$615 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 04 $1,441 +$605 +42%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $2 +$8 +376%
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? Dec 12 $651 −$362 -56%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Dec 10 $3,755 −$147 -4%
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? Dec 09 $375 −$120 -32%
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? Dec 07 $238 −$148 -62%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 04 $3,038 −$1,503 -50%
Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025? Dec 04 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Dec 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 02 $1,046 −$166 -16%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Dec 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? Dec 01 $378 +$142 +38%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Dec 01 $806 +$151 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Dec 01 $2,881 +$1,319 +46%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 28 $335 +$75 +22%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $330 −$33 -10%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? Nov 15 $1,807 −$1,174 -65%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 11 $1,149 −$338 -29%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7? Nov 11 $684 +$189 +28%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? Nov 01 $33 +$18 +55%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 28 $7,791 −$384 -5%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 27 $315 −$237 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 26 $3,685 −$543 -15%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31? Oct 24 $710 −$90 -13%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Oct 22 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? Oct 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 12 $85 −$1,124 -1322%
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025? Oct 03 $35 −$15 -42%
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025? Oct 03 $973 −$773 -80%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Oct 03 $1,429 −$601 -42%
Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025? Oct 03 $45 −$32 -71%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Oct 01 $1,233 −$207 -17%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Oct 01 $1,823 −$57 -3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 24 $730 +$160 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $4,420 +$3,003 +68%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Sep 23 $982 −$467 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $6,285 −$1,678 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 20 $905 +$186 +21%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Sep 20 $442 +$21 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? Sep 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $47 −$24 -51%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 13 $2,145 −$571 -27%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 09 $558 +$120 +22%
Will MrBeast raise between $40m and $41m by midnight? Sep 01 $430 +$101 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 199d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $79 199d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $10 199d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $10 199d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? SELL No 76¢ $380 199d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $959 200d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 6¢ $81 201d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 6¢ $2 201d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 6¢ $4 201d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $285 201d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $801 201d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 6¢ $32 201d
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 201d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 5¢ $75 201d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 201d
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 201d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 202d
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $48 202d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 202d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 202d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 202d
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 203d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 203d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 203d
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 203d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $960 203d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $31 204d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 9¢ $3 205d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 9¢ $0 205d
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records