Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0106…024b crypto 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$154 (-4%) realized −$153 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$9
crypto 14% +$5
other 11% $0
world 8% $0
sports 5% −$151
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 17% -7.3%
≤90d 12 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 8% -7.4%
all 71 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 3% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -12.9%
10% -21.8% 1% -21.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage717d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? May 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 22 $17 $0 +3%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 22 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $17 $0 +1%
Oilers vs. Capitals Nov 19 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $19 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 25 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 27 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 27 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 28 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Nov 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Nov 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Nov 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 02 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Oct 09 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $18 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 90¢ $19 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? BUY No 99¢ $18 28d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? BUY No 99¢ $18 28d
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? BUY No 97¢ $20 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $15 61d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 98¢ $18 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $17 89d
Will Solana reach $120 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 118d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $17 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $17 148d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 179d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 179d
Oilers vs. Capitals BUY Oilers 47¢ $153 217d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 98¢ $19 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $14 242d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 99¢ $9 270d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 97¢ $23 270d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 94¢ $13 304d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 94¢ $16 304d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $29 335d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 361d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 394d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $23 394d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $9 427d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.55 · official $39.55 (match) · 176 history records