Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

01 0x0108…3d55 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$740 (+90%) realized +$758 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-41.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-64.7%	-68.1%	23%	23%	-58.3%
≤30d	14	-35.7%	-41.8%	29%	29%	+162.8%
≤90d	14	-35.7%	-41.8%	29%	29%	+162.8%
all	14	-35.7%	-41.8%	29%	29%	+162.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.8%	29%	+162.8%
10%	-47.4%	29%	+137.7%
15%	-52.5%	21%	+114.7%
20%	-57.1%	14%	+93.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +190% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt +190% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late -81% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$203 vs −$10 · ×21.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.5 per $1 lost it wins $8.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage

Net worth$357

Realized+$758

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage41d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Yes	50¢	49¢	$250	$246	−$4 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$125	$110	−$15 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	Jun 20	$40	−$38	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 18	$15	+$4	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$5	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Jun 18	$26	+$10	+38%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Jun 09	$232	+$792	+341%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY Yes	18¢	$103	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY Yes	51¢	$25	2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY Yes	51¢	$92	2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	23¢	$11	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	23¢	$0	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY Yes	56¢	$5	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	23¢	$5	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	SELL Yes	10¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.88 · official $356.88 (match) · 83 history records