Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0109…28da politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,020 (+1%) realized +$1,019 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,369per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$36
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$126
other 36% −$173
world 6% −$8
economics 3% −$5
sports 3% +$1,215
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -8.9% -17.6% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 123 +0.6% -8.9% 9% 7% -9.0%
all 131 +0.6% -9.0% 8% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 7% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 7% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,693) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$7 · ×24.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,309
Realized+$1,019
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,369
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $877 $876 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $431 $432 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,787 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,587 −$7 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,521 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,125 −$5 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $3,034 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,673 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,711 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,699 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,212 −$6 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $598 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $795 +$1 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,935 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,708 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,989 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,259 −$3 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $6,006 −$8 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $67 +$29 +44%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $2,866 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 20 $19 +$57 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $90 +$210 +233%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $67 +$28 +42%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $59 +$55 +93%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4,214 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $877 33m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $811 3h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $712 20h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $713 24h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $511 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $512 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,579 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,581 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,440 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,443 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,430 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,142 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,144 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,486 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,488 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,397 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,399 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $431 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,406 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,408 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,469 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,439 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,441 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,615 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.63 · official $1,308.63 (match) · 455 history records