Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x010f…df3a
crypto · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$78 -77%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage146d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BC.Game Esports 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MOUZ 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner BC.Game Esports 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? No 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19? No 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Natus Vincere 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner M80 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$16 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $2 $0 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $1 −$1 -70%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$22
crypto 27% −$26
other 25% −$17
world 7% −$7
tech 5% −$2
economics 3% −$3
politics 2% $0
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 32m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 11h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $3 12h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 14d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 8¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 14¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 17¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 16¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 24¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 27¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 6¢ $1 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 12¢ $2 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner SELL M80 34¢ $5 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 13¢ $2 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi BUY BC.Game Esports 16¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-80.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 33% -11.6%
≤30d 18 -80.3% -82.2% 11% 6% -85.6%
≤90d 18 -80.3% -82.2% 11% 6% -85.6%
all 35 -78.0% -80.1% 14% 9% -84.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.1% 9% -84.8%
10% -82.0% 9% -86.3%
15% -83.7% 6% -87.6%
20% -85.3% 6% -88.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.84 (match) · 65 history records