Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x010f…eef8 weather 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% $0
other 27% $0
crypto 21% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 16 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage173d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 23°C on June 3? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C on April 22? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 8? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 26? Mar 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on March 19? Mar 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Mar 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Feb 28 $14 $0 +0%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Arina Rodionova vs Simona Walt Feb 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jan 21 $11 $0 +2%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jan 02 $1 $0 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 27h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 23°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $40 18d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 74d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 80d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $34 87d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $25 93d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $56 94d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $39 94d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $11 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $4 103d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $14 113d
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY No 100¢ $11 131d
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Arina Rodionova vs Simona Walt BUY Waltert 100¢ $5 133d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 151d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $113 170d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb BUY No 83¢ $1 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.99 · official $162.99 (match) · 32 history records