Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

01 0x0111…dd27 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$114 (-4%) realized −$115 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$50

7 days+$1,004

14 days+$769

30 days+$769

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+31.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+50.8%	+36.5%	62%	62%	+46.9%
≤30d	17	+45.3%	+31.4%	59%	59%	+22.8%
≤90d	17	+45.3%	+31.4%	59%	59%	+22.8%
all	17	+45.3%	+31.4%	59%	59%	+22.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.4%	59%	+22.8%
10%	+18.9%	59%	+11.1%
15%	+7.4%	59%	+0.3%
20%	-3.1%	53%	-9.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +54% → late +37% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$163 vs −$123 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$221

Realized−$115

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions4

Markets (closed)17 / 24

History coverage149d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$70	$71	+$1 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	43¢	44¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Spain	75¢	76¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	38¢	38¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$139	+$70	+50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$51	+$30	+60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$406	−$400	-99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$110	−$110	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina	Jun 17	$151	+$899	+596%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$131	+$168	+128%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$222	+$143	+65%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$79	+$121	+152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$27	+$32	+120%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$30	+$20	+65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$65	+$35	+55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$89	+$111	+124%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Jun 12	$540	−$235	-44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$71	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	38¢	$51	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	43¢	$51	1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	75¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$89	23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$51	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$51	23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY	25¢	$102	43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$406	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs.	BUY	7¢	$11	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombi	BUY	20¢	$102	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$300	4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina	BUY	12¢	$123	5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina	SELL	9¢	$21	5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina	BUY	12¢	$28	5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$100	5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$61	5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	43¢	$131	5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$61	5d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$79	5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$25	5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$59	5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	13¢	$27	5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	60¢	$30	6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	64¢	$65	6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	44¢	$89	6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$110	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.83 · official $220.83 (match) · 54 history records