Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x0111…1071 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,146 (+11%) realized +$25,073 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%47W / 23L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,181per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$2,499est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48,042
7 days+$9,889
14 days+$13,899
30 days+$21,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$18,853
other 2% +$4,694
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +28.2% +16.0% 60% 45% -4.8%
≤30d 66 +34.2% +21.4% 67% 53% -0.7%
≤90d 70 +34.1% +21.3% 67% 53% -0.2%
all 70 +34.1% +21.3% 67% 53% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.3% 53% -0.2%
10% +9.7% 50% -9.7%
15% ← realistic here -0.9% 36% -18.5%
20% -10.6% 31% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$4,419) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,951 vs −$2,965 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,771
Realized+$25,073
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses47 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,499
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage31d
Avg bet$3,181
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ 88¢ $1,531 $1,770 +$239 (+16%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 15¢ 0¢ $167 $1 −$167 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,075 +$31 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,105 +$26,708 +860%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,688 +$2,812 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $4,500 −$3,005 -67%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $10,581 −$1,108 -10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $9,716 +$5,626 +58%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5,224 +$5,027 +96%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,021 +$2,153 +211%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6,274 +$3,737 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $929 −$399 -43%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,068 +$2,228 +108%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $322 +$28 +9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $562 +$693 +123%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$12 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $443 +$878 +198%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $532 +$1,161 +218%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $687 +$721 +105%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $397 +$287 +72%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $368 +$32 +9%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $96 +$703 +732%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $216 −$216 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur Jun 14 $4,770 −$475 -10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $408 −$408 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,086 −$1,086 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,321 −$1,321 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,664 −$1,664 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,149 −$2,149 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,116 −$3,116 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,419 −$4,419 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $19,686 −$19,686 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12,932 −$12,932 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 14 $13,707 −$13,707 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $294 +$26 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $111 +$42 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $103 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,352 +$323 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,271 +$1,489 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3,996 +$161 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,426 +$1,570 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11,932 +$10,245 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10,712 +$2,674 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10,046 +$398 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $40 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $64 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $4 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $3 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $1 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $76 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $1 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $4 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 76¢ $1,347 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $1 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 17¢ $18 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 17¢ $41 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 17¢ $2 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $22 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $27 54m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $58 54m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1,106 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $29,813 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $9 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $94 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $137 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $2 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $15 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $5 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $11 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $2 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $65 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,770.56 · official $1,780.56 (match) · 864 history records