Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0115…ac79 sports 660 markets active 11h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,804 (-8%) realized −$2,771 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%340W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$56
14 days−$431
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$2,183
other 23% −$374
world 12% −$277
crypto 12% −$311
politics 10% −$85
finance 2% +$94
culture 1% +$18
tech 0% +$43
economics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 64% -6.2%
≤30d 158 -5.9% -14.8% 55% 46% -13.3%
≤90d 573 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 46% -18.5%
all 644 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 46% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 46% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -25.2%
15% -31.0% 21% -32.4%
20% -37.8% 14% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$32 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$2,771
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses340 / 304
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions14
Markets (closed)644 / 660
History coverage104d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 62¢ 54¢ $79 $69 −$10 (-13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 96¢ $37 $44 +$7 (+19%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 54¢ 52¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 85¢ 93¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 66¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 80¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 66¢ 37¢ $38 $21 −$17 (-44%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 74¢ 20¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026- Jun 17 $38 +$6 +14%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $44 +$10 +23%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Russell? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$3 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $79 +$7 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $68 −$17 -26%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $40 +$5 +13%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$8 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $39 +$24 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $37 +$10 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 +$7 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $67 +$17 +25%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $37 +$11 +30%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $34 +$17 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Ferrari get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $29 +$4 +12%
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +12%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $69 −$68 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $41 +$56 +138%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $129 −$73 -57%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $158 −$3 -2%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 12 $20 −$17 -84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $62 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $96 −$15 -15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $35 +$19 +53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$3 -5%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 11 $45 −$6 -14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 10 $350 −$325 -93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $249 −$92 -37%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $35 +$8 +22%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 07 $30 −$23 -78%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 Jun 06 $93 +$1 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$9 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 03 $56 −$56 -99%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $40 +$10 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $76 −$27 -35%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs BUY 70¢ $43 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $20 25h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $30 25h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $30 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $37 34h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 AND Will South A BUY 85¢ $40 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026- BUY 87¢ $38 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $38 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 46h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $46 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 46h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $44 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 46h
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $24 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $78 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes 98¢ $8 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 85¢ $7 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $35 4d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 88¢ $35 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $40 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $37 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 98¢ $47 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $42 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 69¢ $35 4d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 85¢ $40 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $39 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 77¢ $37 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $84 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.98 · official $586.98 · 2344 history records