Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0116…7e16 sports 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate97%175W / 5L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$11
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 8% -8.2%
≤30d 180 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 180 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 8% -8.4%
all 180 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 8% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses175 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)180 / 183
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jeline Vandromme 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Ann Li 93¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $0 $0 +1%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $4 $0 +8%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $8 $0 +3%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $4 $0 +5%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 93¢ $4 13m
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 97¢ $4 39m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Jeline Vandromme 99¢ $4 54m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 98¢ $4 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet BUY Kilian Feldbausch 99¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 99¢ $0 2h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Henry Searle 92¢ $4 4h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 94¢ $4 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 96¢ $4 4h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Michele Ribecai 99¢ $4 5h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 99¢ $4 5h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 98¢ $4 7h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 98¢ $4 19h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 99¢ $4 19h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 99¢ $4 19h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 99¢ $4 19h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 98¢ $4 20h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 86¢ $4 21h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 97¢ $4 22h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 97¢ $4 22h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 95¢ $4 22h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 89¢ $4 23h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Guido Justo 99¢ $4 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 94¢ $4 24h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 97¢ $4 24h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 84¢ $4 24h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 87¢ $4 25h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 91¢ $4 26h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 93¢ $4 28h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.31 · official $12.03 (match) · 376 history records