Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x011b…36dd crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$2
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -10.8%
all 10 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -10.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage15d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $100 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 84¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 85¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 85¢ $14 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 92¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 90¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 96¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 98¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 95¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 64¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 70¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 95¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 95¢ $50 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 99¢ $50 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 95¢ $14 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 96¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? SELL Up 89¢ $49 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 91¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 99¢ $50 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.17 · official $54.17 (match) · 30 history records