Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x011e…0fac sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$49
14 days+$116
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$139
other 48% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 33% -12.9%
≤30d 66 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -9.0%
≤90d 66 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -9.0%
all 66 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 39% -9.0%
10% -36.1% 38% -17.7%
15% -42.2% 36% -25.7%
20% -47.9% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$25 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage20d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 42¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 +$39 +76%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$42 +83%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $101 +$68 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$49 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 22h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 44h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $31 44h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 45h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $21 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.78 · official $178.78 (match) · 98 history records