Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x011f…1122
politics · 91 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$230,212 +175%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,303 · open +$73,366
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$513,086
Realized+$1,303
Unrealized+$73,366
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$267
Open positions239
Markets (closed)21 / 91
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,449
Trades / day445.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 239 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,110
7 days+$1,303
14 days+$1,303
30 days+$1,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 57¢ 85¢ $111,032 $166,096 +$55,064 (+50%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50,937 $50,694 −$243 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $30,805 $28,295 −$2,510 (-8%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $29,914 $23,156 −$6,758 (-23%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $23,621 $21,861 −$1,760 (-7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 56¢ $17,209 $20,086 +$2,877 (+17%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $13,986 $15,070 +$1,084 (+8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $8,013 $12,195 +$4,182 (+52%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 39¢ 34¢ $12,829 $11,314 −$1,515 (-12%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 93¢ 97¢ $9,764 $10,109 +$344 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3,970 $8,385 +$4,415 (+111%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $9,027 $8,228 −$799 (-9%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $7,887 $8,225 +$338 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $4,858 $7,004 +$2,146 (+44%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $5,333 $5,888 +$555 (+10%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $3,934 $5,336 +$1,401 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $3,413 $4,541 +$1,128 (+33%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3,053 $4,531 +$1,478 (+48%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3,340 $4,307 +$967 (+29%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $4,433 $4,299 −$134 (-3%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2,895 $4,242 +$1,346 (+47%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1,732 $3,972 +$2,240 (+129%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1,622 $3,916 +$2,294 (+141%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $4,397 $3,413 −$984 (-22%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2,094 $3,341 +$1,247 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chellie Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Dan Kleban be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $680 +$16 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,357 −$2,093 -89%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $558 +$4 +1%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 10 $1,638 −$1,541 -94%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $206 +$698 +339%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $728 −$417 -57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $483 +$81 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $1 +$2 +127%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 09 $1 +$191 +34367%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $3,104 +$154 +5%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $8,783 +$2,243 +26%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,929 +$2,204 +114%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $1,589 +$402 +25%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $3,130 −$912 -29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $494 +$306 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$13,027
politics 42% +$62,626
sports 9% −$1,286
world 0% +$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $2 8m
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $5 24m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 35m
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidentia BUY Yes $0 35m
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 37m
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $2 39m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 40m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 42m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $2 54m
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $12 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 3h
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $8 3h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 4h
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $2 4h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $8 4h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $3 5h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $6 5h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 5h
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +87.5% +69.6% 52% 38% -5.4%
≤30d 21 +87.5% +69.6% 52% 38% -5.4%
≤90d 21 +87.5% +69.6% 52% 38% -5.4%
all 21 +87.5% +69.6% 52% 38% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover445.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.6% 38% -5.4%
10% +53.4% 33% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here +38.6% 24% -22.7%
20% +25.0% 24% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $513,086.29 · official $513,122.60 (match) · 3500 history records