Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

01 0x0124…473a other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$259 (+29%) realized +$268 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown57%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+31.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+45.3%	+31.4%	50%	50%	+28.8%
≤30d	6	+45.3%	+31.4%	50%	50%	+28.8%
≤90d	6	+45.3%	+31.4%	50%	50%	+28.8%
all	6	+45.3%	+31.4%	50%	50%	+28.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.4%	50%	+28.8%
10%	+18.8%	50%	+16.5%
15%	+7.4%	50%	+5.2%
20%	-3.2%	17%	-5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$156 vs −$71 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$285

Realized+$268

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown57%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$194	$192	−$2 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$46	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$50	+50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$103	−$13	-12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$103	−$100	-97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$95	+$370	+388%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$95	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	12¢	$90	26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$102	38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$95	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.00 · official $285.04 (match) · 13 history records