Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x012d…1c53 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,149 (-8%) realized −$2,148 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,169
7 days+$1,556
14 days+$1,623
30 days−$1,266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 56% −$719
finance 26% −$1,856
other 18% +$172
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 65% 9% -1.0%
≤30d 27 -5.2% -14.2% 63% 7% -14.4%
≤90d 37 -12.7% -21.0% 57% 14% -17.3%
all 37 -12.7% -21.0% 57% 14% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 14% -17.3%
10% -28.5% 14% -25.2%
15% -35.5% 11% -32.5%
20% -41.8% 11% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$693) neutral
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$426 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,148
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage86d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 27 $128 −$19 -15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? Jun 27 $34 +$1 +3%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 27 $466 +$31 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -39%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $4,538 +$3,925 +86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 27 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Jun 27 $1,201 −$796 -66%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? Jun 27 $7 $0 -7%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? Jun 27 $4 $0 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 27 $115 +$4 +4%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.40 (High) in 2026? Jun 27 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 27 $95 +$2 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +78%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $191 +$8 +4%
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? Jun 27 $386 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $371 +$15 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 23 $480 +$12 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 23 $539 +$18 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? Jun 23 $693 +$10 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 23 $3,684 +$144 +4%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 23 $3,341 −$1,812 -54%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $385 +$15 +4%
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $2,591 +$52 +2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $911 −$696 -76%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $3,076 −$2,193 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 04 $15 +$3 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 04 $2,374 +$43 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 20 $158 −$118 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 20 $432 −$318 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 20 $1,120 −$852 -76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 14 $167 +$106 +64%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $11 +$11 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 82¢ $109 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $9 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? SELL No 97¢ $8 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $497 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? SELL No 60¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,173 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $6,152 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? SELL No 34¢ $405 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.40 (High) in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $96 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 1h
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $387 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $386 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $493 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $557 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? SELL No 94¢ $703 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $3,828 4d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,529 4d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $214 26d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $883 26d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $45 54d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $326 54d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $466 54d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $385 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 303 history records