Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0130…d0f8 crypto 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$213 (+10%) realized +$275 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%99W / 65L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$138
14 days+$204
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$186
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +25.8% +13.8% 64% 64% +19.1%
≤30d 131 +15.2% +4.2% 66% 66% +5.3%
≤90d 164 +9.2% -1.2% 60% 60% +3.4%
all 164 +9.2% -1.2% 60% 60% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 60% +3.4%
10% -10.7% 60% -6.5%
15% -19.3% 60% -15.5%
20% -27.2% 59% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$275
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses99 / 65
Open positions18
Markets (closed)164 / 176
History coverage40d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? No 54¢ 76¢ $40 $57 +$17 (+42%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $27 $48 +$21 (+79%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? No 59¢ 64¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $13 $25 +$11 (+85%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? No 60¢ 48¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 60¢ 82¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $8 $14 +$7 (+89%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 52¢ 54¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$6 (+72%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 62¢ 52¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 52¢ 16¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-70%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? No 57¢ 11¢ $40 $8 −$33 (-81%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 58¢ 6¢ $31 $3 −$28 (-90%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 0¢ 49¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$20 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$18 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$21 +67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$14 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$5 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$6 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$14 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$17 +70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$10 +62%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$9 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$14 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$10 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$20 +83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$15 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$5 +61%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$20 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $16 +$12 +77%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 +$15 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$6 +81%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$5 +61%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 +$10 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$6 +74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$13 +79%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$5 +69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $24 +$9 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$6 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$14 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 05 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 June 1-7? Jun 05 $8 +$6 +76%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$12 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$13 +85%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 5? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $28 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $14 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 62¢ $14 20h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 54¢ $42 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $14 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $28 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $28 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $42 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 52¢ $28 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $32 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $32 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $8 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 8-14? BUY No 63¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.16 · official $332.74 (match) · 279 history records