Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0133…64bc crypto 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,680 (-4%) realized −$8,574 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate74%281W / 98L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$454est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,768
7 days−$5,159
14 days−$5,159
30 days−$7,626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$4,312
crypto 39% −$5,558
other 19% +$202
world 2% +$3,265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -10.2% -18.7% 73% 31% -13.6%
≤30d 190 -14.3% -22.4% 70% 34% -14.7%
≤90d 347 -10.2% -18.8% 73% 28% -13.1%
all 379 -9.4% -18.1% 74% 27% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 27% -12.3%
10% -25.9% 12% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here -33.1% 6% -28.3%
20% -39.6% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$824) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$234 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$8,574
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses281 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$454
Open positions2
Markets (closed)379 / 385
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$545
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $350 $296 −$54 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 42¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,210 −$1,210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,484 −$1,484 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $971 −$971 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $551 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $149 +$73 +49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $657 −$24 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $313 +$35 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $687 +$21 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $626 +$16 +3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $783 +$27 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $564 −$21 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,802 +$355 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $751 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $683 −$611 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,381 +$38 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,283 +$120 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,281 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $796 +$384 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $686 +$198 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $758 +$133 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,753 +$35 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,456 +$100 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $728 +$54 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1,641 +$259 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $358 −$331 -93%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,443 +$196 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1,527 +$29 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $510 −$387 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $695 −$695 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1,019 −$539 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $765 −$765 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $664 −$664 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1,450 +$438 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2,029 −$678 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1,937 +$182 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $189 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1,758 +$120 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1,253 +$43 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1,271 +$310 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 51¢ $40 50m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 51¢ $86 50m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 51¢ $30 50m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 51¢ $31 50m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 49¢ $684 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $226 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 41¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 28¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.10 · official $304.61 · 3500 history records