Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0134…ea74 crypto 761 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,652 (-18%) realized −$4,652 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%350W / 411L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$182
14 days−$257
30 days−$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 45% -12.7%
≤30d 188 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 43% -21.4%
≤90d 743 -7.7% -16.4% 46% 45% -21.5%
all 761 -8.1% -16.9% 46% 45% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 45% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 43% -29.2%
15% -32.1% 41% -36.0%
20% -38.7% 39% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,652
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses350 / 411
Open positions0
Markets (closed)761 / 761
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 761 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$20 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $108 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$54 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $54 −$40 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$15 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $66 +$46 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$26 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$61 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$20 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $66 +$69 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $66 +$66 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$22 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$5 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$12 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$44 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$11 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $58 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $35 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $48 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records