Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0138…f195 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$6
politics 20% −$1
other 19% −$1
sports 14% −$13
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 22 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 9% -8.6%
≤90d 73 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 4% -9.4%
all 87 -4.4% -13.5% 29% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage527d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 80¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $41 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$2 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $33 +$5 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $144 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $55 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $29 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $66 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $60 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -19%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $34 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 06 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $37 −$4 -11%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $29 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 50m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 51m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $13 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $16 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $41 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $41 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.35 · official $0.00 · 358 history records