Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x0139…5444
other · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)129 / 134
History coverage91d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 5 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days+$13
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty New York Liberty 63¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+59%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 75¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -83%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $22 $0 -2%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $59 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $7 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $56 +$25 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 04 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $18 −$1 -3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $201 −$1 -0%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 28 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 26 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $19 −$1 -4%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $659 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $1 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $412 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $151 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $8 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% −$17
politics 18% −$4
world 15% +$20
sports 13% −$9
economics 8% −$1
crypto 8% −$5
finance 5% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 3h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 3h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL Yes 55¢ $7 3h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY Yes 56¢ $7 3h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $14 3h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $14 3h
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 5h
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $3 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $1 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $20 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $20 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $1 6h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $18 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 6h
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F SELL No 40¢ $1 6h
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F BUY No 40¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL No 42¢ $14 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 43¢ $14 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $21 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $21 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 44¢ $15 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $15 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.4% -19.0% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 31 +57.4% +42.4% 3% 3% -10.8%
≤90d 121 +13.4% +2.6% 2% 1% -9.8%
all 129 +12.5% +1.8% 2% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 1% -9.8%
10% -8.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -16.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -25.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.63 · official $0.00 · 1383 history records