Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x013a…a44b crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$211 (+7%) realized +$189 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$368
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$49
sports 31% +$133
finance 18% +$332
crypto 17% −$146
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +43.8% +30.1% 60% 60% +38.9%
≤30d 12 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 17 -11.3% -19.7% 41% 41% -0.6%
all 28 +23.3% +11.6% 57% 57% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 57% +3.4%
10% +0.9% 54% -6.5%
15% -8.8% 50% -15.5%
20% -17.8% 46% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$78 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage98d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 44¢ 42¢ $447 $431 −$15 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 50¢ 70¢ $90 $127 +$37 (+41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$57 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $128 −$128 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 Jun 21 $404 +$220 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$201 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$108 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 +$48 +43%
Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5) Apr 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 11 $75 −$70 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 27 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $484 +$321 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 22 $23 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 22 $9 +$14 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 17 $48 +$75 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 17 $58 +$40 +68%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $48 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 16 $15 +$33 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 16 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$27 +275%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $91 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $98 32m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $454 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 SELL 99¢ $625 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 BUY 63¢ $404 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 5¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $202 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $95 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 10d
Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5) BUY Lille OSC 22¢ $3 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 64d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov SELL Makhmudov 1¢ $5 71d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov BUY Makhmudov 16¢ $75 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $106 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 39¢ $106 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 59¢ $160 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 61¢ $160 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 12¢ $31 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.78 · official $578.78 (match) · 69 history records