Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x013d…95e5 crypto 868 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$604 (-8%) realized −$604 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%411W / 457L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$501
14 days−$482
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$529
weather 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -36.3% -42.3% 18% 18% -40.9%
≤30d 91 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 43% -31.9%
≤90d 868 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% -16.4%
all 868 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% -16.4%
10% -20.9% 47% -24.4%
15% -28.5% 45% -31.7%
20% -35.5% 41% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses411 / 457
Open positions0
Markets (closed)868 / 868
History coverage64d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 868 Trades
no open positions (441 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$210 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$29 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$120 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$96 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$126 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$13 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$8 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $43 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1329 history records