Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0146…7390 weather 1707 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1595W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day85.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -10.0%
≤30d 1648 +0.4% -9.1% 97% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 1648 +0.4% -9.1% 97% 1% -10.0%
all 1648 +0.4% -9.1% 97% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1595 / 53
Open positions58
Markets (closed)1648 / 1707
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day85.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 1648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 14¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.09 · official $72.09 (match) · 3500 history records