Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0146…5b61 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$1
other 15% +$1
sports 3% +$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 26 +4.5% -5.5% 50% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 4% -8.5%
10% -14.5% 4% -17.2%
15% -22.8% 4% -25.2%
20% -30.4% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage485d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $125 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $79 −$4 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $40 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $18 $0 +0%
Towson vs. Elon Mar 03 $9 +$9 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $21 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $3 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $16 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $3 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $14 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $35 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $57 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $45 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $17 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $19 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.36 · official $45.36 (match) · 87 history records