Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x014b…243b weather 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,474 (-17%) realized −$1,482 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%112W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$551
weather 34% −$212
other 12% −$380
world 5% −$265
sports 3% −$52
tech 2% −$103
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 40% +12.1%
≤30d 18 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 33% -20.8%
≤90d 123 -48.5% -53.4% 16% 15% -49.8%
all 351 -30.9% -37.5% 32% 27% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 27% -26.2%
10% -43.5% 20% -33.2%
15% -49.0% 17% -39.7%
20% -54.0% 15% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$1,482
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses112 / 239
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)351 / 356
History coverage125d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 29 $3 $0 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 +$14 +57%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 +$37 +180%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $19 +$11 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 26? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24? Apr 24 $1 +$3 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 21? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 23? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 21? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 23? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 23? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 23? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 21? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 23? Apr 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 23? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 21? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 24? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 24? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 24? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 23? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 21? Apr 22 $1 +$4 +488%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21? Apr 21 $3 +$5 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 22? Apr 21 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 20? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20? Apr 21 $2 +$6 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $34 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? AND BUY 5¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 36h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 35¢ $20 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $82 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND France to score first vs. Norway? AND W BUY 36¢ $25 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $57 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 15d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 15d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.12 · official $166.56 · 1141 history records